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Eugyppius, Thank you for an excellent researched and detailed analysis of the likely evolutionary pressures leading to the escape of the 'India', or Delta, variant. I personally had traveled through SE Asia and Shanghai from mid-November till early December. Immediately on returning home I spiked a 103.5 fever and had bouts of vomiting and myalgia. It wasn't till almost a year later that it occurred to me to check antibodies, which came back with very high titers indicating exposure with no intervening illness.

I say this because I tend to believe that the CCP likely, either intentionally or subsequently, utilized SARS CoV-2 as a 'Bioweapon'. And seized on an enhanced disinformation campaign to throw the Western World into mass panic and confused response. Perhaps a coordinated response with the likes of Daszak & Lord Fauci.

Yet, I have often felt that the CCP had another version of Pre-Evolved and Mutated Virus, call it SARS CoV-2/ 2.0, waiting in the wings to cripple and psychologically devastate the populations of the Western Democracies. A variant that was already 75% evolved to escape spike antibody inoculation.

We exist in a vacuum of truth from all authoritative sources, likely intentional. This leaves us prone to wild conjecture. Yet, my distrust of the 'Motives' of both the Leadership Class & their panoply of Sycophantic Experts has reached a point where my innate caution against speculative overreaction has evaporated.

Your thorough analysis is most welcome and I do not dispute your assertions, but at this juncture, there exists a strong compulsion within me to distrust nicely wrapped packages, replete with ribbons and bows... Though conspiratorial hypotheses such as these arrive without much if any supporting facts, still expecting the worst of the CCP and their Globalist Useful Idiots has become a default mindset. --Ed

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Oct 7, 2021Liked by eugyppius

One factor to consider is a variable related to immunity, rather disrupted immunity, upon which this infective agent is expressed. That variable is systemic, population-wide, chronic vitamin D deficiency. The immune system “runs” on vitD. Presenting a relatively inert infective agent to a healthy immune system is a non-event. Presenting that same agent to a disrupted, dysfunctional immune system caused by vitD deficiency is quite another.

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Thank you for this fascinating presentation of a mystery I was previously unaware of. I was already attuned to the (brazenly ignored) warnings from scientists about the selective pressure the vaccines would put on the virus to mutate into potentially more dangerous variations (a few pertinent citations below) but had not encountered the data you presented here.

In December 2020, Nature published an article (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03441-8) expressing the following concerns:

“Mass vaccination campaigns will, for the first time, put enormous pressure on SARS-CoV-2 to adapt, and will select for any strain of the virus that might be able to escape immune defences. ‘We’ve never seen a virus like this under selective pressure,’ says Griffin. ‘So we don’t know how it’s going to respond.’”

That same month, an article in Medical Hypotheses suggested evidence was emerging that natural immunity had already been achieved and the asymptomatic version of the virus was winning domination, which basically would’ve meant the end of the (manufactured) crisis if policymakers had simply let nature take its course and not introduced mass experimental injections:

“The COVID-19 positive cases are increasing at an alarming rate across the world. On the contrary, the morbidity and mortality are showing decreasing trend as time progresses. The most intriguing part is the rise in asymptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) positive cases in the population, which made us speculate some kind of gradual development of immunity in the population.… Thus, we hypothesized the existence of SAMPPs mediated the development of immunity against SARS-CoV-2 infection, which has caused an increase in the incidence rate of asymptomatic cases and a decrease in mortality rate.”

On August 16, 2021, Vaccine published an article titled, “Playing Vaccine Roulette: Why the Current Strategy of Staking Everything on Covid-19 Vaccines Is a High-Stakes Wager” (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34315610/) that elucidates many of the concerns associated with the criminally reckless (to put it kindly) policy of mass vaccinations.

There is no degree of incompetence that accounts for the level of lunacy/psychopathy associated with this policy—either based on known and anticipated factors prior to its rollout or on the exponentially mushrooming evidence of the massive damage that has resulted from these global crimes against humanity.

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Oct 7, 2021Liked by eugyppius

I had no idea most of these variants had occurred pre vaccine in a relatively short time frame. It's a very interesting mystery. As is the apparent non factor of covid in China. But I recall when these variants were first getting mentioned that they were identified with geographical regions - UK, South Africa, Brazil, India are the four ones that spring to mind. I think they are now referred to as Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta respectively. Is it a relevant question to ask what was going on in those places that might have driven variation?

Back to the vaccines. There are the four ones we are familiar with here in the west: AZ, Pfizer, Moderna and J&J. But Russia, China and India all created products too that have widespread use, and they all had trials. I have no idea of where the trials were held, or the size of said trials. The VoCs aren't linked geographically to Russia or China, though Delta apparently arose in India.

Do all of these vaccines use the same technology? Seems that I read that there's one in India based on a more traditional method of using the attenuated virus?

And now we don't seem to hear much about new variants of concern. Has it stopped mutating? Or per one of your recent articles is it poised to mutate to escape the vaccines.

Mysteries to solve.

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In the rank ordering of likelihood of "conspiracy"-esque alternatives, I think we can rule a few out.

For this phenomenon to occur naturally, it would need to be something that involves a large susceptible population, because otherwise the variants would not be able to evolve this capability - you need a form of serial passage with enough hosts who can harbor the pathogen to develop specific resistance against these S1 focused antibodies. To target the vaccine immunity so specifically you would therefore need a large inoculated population. But no such population existed. There was a population of convalescents, but the evidence seems to suggest that they do not get reinfected at a high enough rate to allow this kind of resistance to develop. It's also not clear to me that convalescents have the relevant specific antibodies for S1, this should be something that is known at this point which I will try to investigate. That alone could certainly sink the convalescent population hypothesis.

If it required a population of inoculated people, then it seems to me that either a secret inoculation program was put into place, or that the phenomenon was not naturally occurring, and later seeded to make it plausibly appear natural.

I tend to reject the idea that there was a secret program of this sort. It would be very difficult to keep secret and we already know that the known methods of inoculation are themselves dangerous, causing many very noticeable side effects. I reject the aerosolized inoculation approach because it is too difficult to control dosage. I reject the idea of a viral inoculation (spread a different virus that spreads virally and confers immunity), because it would tend to spread to the whole population. All of these would induce a side effect profile that has been hard to ignore, and was clearly not present until the public rollout.

It seems much more plausible that someone took one or more of the vaccine candidates early in the process, and ran serial passage using small doses to evolve immunity, and then seeded human populations with various of the interim stages to make it look natural. Would someone doing this shy away from using human subjects? I don’t think China has problems with that approach, using some certain subsets of their population.

Another possible clue is whether the vaccine resistance so far effects all vaccines equally? Most of the research on antibodies I have seen seems to focus on Pfizer. I seem to recall some evidence that Moderna was more resistant to Delta and less so to Beta? If the resistance is not only focused on S1 but also even more specific to one or another vaccine, to me that is even more suspicious.

In this light, what should we make of the more recent evolution of Delta to possibly continue the escape process? Given that we *now* have a huge population of inoculated but still susceptible people, at this point nature will take its course, and it’s probably beyond anyone’s control.

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Eugyppius, you are a light in the darkness. Question: You assume the reason for vaccine failure is Delta variant escape. Is this settled? Alternative theory that I've seen is that the effectiveness (antibodies?) just wears off after 10 weeks or so. Would seem to matter for booster strategy (which is madness either way, but what kind of madness, exactly?).

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I just shouted this post out in the Substack Shoutout Thread (https://on.substack.com/p/shoutout-5/comment/3163347), so you may get some newcomers :-)

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Oct 7, 2021Liked by eugyppius

Maybe, SARS-2 was designed to mutate rapidly. DNA/RNA is nothing more than coded information. Could it be that geneticists has discovered that DNA/RNA can have time based triggers that make it look like evolution is happening, when it was designed to evolve all along?

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My understanding of the Delta variant, formerly known as the Indian variant, was that it arose in, well, India, at a point where the country was not undergoing mass vaccination- to my knowledge, vaccination is still hugely inconsistent there.

While everything you say makes sense, how could the vaccines have exerted selective pressure on a strain that was largely not challenged by them?

Is my understanding incorrect?

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Oct 7, 2021Liked by eugyppius

It would seem our world contains far more immunosuppressed individuals than at first glance. Whether due to low vitamin D, exposure to chemo/polypharmacy, or copious comorbities many individuals may respond with subpar innate and humoral immunity. One could imagine representatives of this demographic being found in nursing homes. If SARS-Cov2 has a history of being enriched what more ideal place for further serial passage than within the body of an individual incapable of preventing leakage from primary organ attack. In this way you literally have numerous cell lines each allowing for serial passage and then recombination events. Multiple that by fifty residents in addition to staff who likely aren’t specimens of health. Now you have, a recombination factory, or as another author put it a “swarm of mutants.”

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May I add these 2 screenshots of the timecourse of the virums in Viet Nam? I find it instructive but not terribly illuminating about the mechanism. How did they go from being an island model of literally zero illness in the middle of a global pandemic to many deaths basically overnight on the heels of accepting global monies to embrace the jab? https://hiddenmarkov.substack.com/p/viet-nam-was-once-covid-free

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Oct 7, 2021Liked by eugyppius

What were the Chinese spraying on the streets in those old videos early on?

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Oct 7, 2021Liked by eugyppius

I think Geert Vandenbossche mentioned something along the lines of a "worry window" for the previously infected whereby they become reinfected before they have mounted a robust immune response to the first infection. I think we would have seen this prior to the vax campaign, too, but maybe with the vax we have millions more people having a "suboptimal immune response" (as he calls it) at the same time?

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I found this preprint that may be helpful

"The plasmablast response to SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination is dominated by non-neutralizing antibodies and targets both the NTD and the RBD"

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.07.21253098v2

This paper compares convalescent abs and vaccinee abs, although it's unclear to me so far whether the two sets are disjoint at all. It's clear they produce radically different responses though. From the discussion: "Indeed, SARS-CoV-2 infection results in a very heterogeneous antibody response to the spike protein in terms of antibody quantity. In contrast, mRNA vaccination appears to induce a high antibody response of relatively homogenous titers. However, we also found that vaccinees generate more non-neutralizing antibodies than COVID-19 survivors resulting in a lower ratio of neutralizing to binding antibodies." It seems like that would mean that developing such a specific response is a lot less likely to happen in convalescents. But in the paper they don't show the incidence of specific abs in convalescents, only in vaccinees.

However.. one thing that stood out to me in the data: In figure 2(F) it shows the profile of vaccine induced neutralizing antibodies. If I am reading correctly, This shows *5* abs targeting NTD and 2 targeting RBD. Given that we now know that Delta evades NTD abs, does this suggest that Delta did all the "heavy lifting" already by mutating to avoid all 5 neutralizing NTD abs?? Numerically this seems like the more challenging part, but then it could also have to do with the relative levels of conservation of RBD vs NTD.

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Interesting piece. Haven't read the manuscript, but June-October 2020 is winter in the southern hemisphere. Could it be something that was happening down under (e.g., Chile) and then spread, making the vaccines obsolete even before their worldwide massive roll-out?

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Oct 7, 2021Liked by eugyppius

I thought the vaccines target the S2 protein. I could swear I read a paper that said targeting the S1 doesn’t work or had bad adverse events like ADE or something. Sorry if I’m wrong, I’ve read so much stuff I can’t keep it straight anymore.

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